Know Sure Thing explained

Momentum

What Know Sure Thing measures

KST, developed by Martin Pring, combines four separate rate-of-change calculations (using progressively longer lookbacks, each smoothed with its own moving average) into one weighted composite. It was purpose-built for identifying major, longer-term trend changes on weekly or monthly charts rather than short-term price wiggles.

How Know Sure Thing readings are interpreted

KST oscillates around zero. Because it blends four different timeframes, a KST signal-line cross or zero-cross reflects broad, multi-timeframe agreement about a shift in momentum rather than a single short-term reading — this is precisely why it's used almost exclusively for major trend identification rather than day-to-day trading.

Conventional Know Sure Thing levels

KST crosses above its signal line: bullish trend-change signal
KST crosses below its signal line: bearish trend-change signal
KST crossing zero: broader confirmation of a major trend shift
Divergence between KST and price on major swing highs/lows has historically been used to call significant market tops and bottoms

Where Know Sure Thing works, and where it does not

KST's four-lookback design (using ROC periods that can stretch to 30+ bars, each further smoothed) makes it inherently unsuited to intraday or hourly data — the lookbacks are simply too long relative to noise on short timeframes. It's a daily-and-above, longer-term tool by design, which is exactly why this app only computes it on daily bars.

Indicators commonly read alongside Know Sure Thing

MACD: Both are trend-change tools; KST agreement with a MACD signal on the weekly chart adds significant confidence
Volume: A KST trend-change signal accompanied by rising volume carries more weight
Coppock Curve: Both are long-horizon momentum tools designed around similar goals — agreement between the two is a strong combined signal for major turning points

Known limitations of Know Sure Thing

Far too slow and lagging for short-term or intraday use — this is a feature, not a bug, but it means very infrequent signals
The four-component weighted formula is opaque compared to simpler oscillators — hard to reason about intuitively from the number alone
Because signals are rare, there's limited opportunity to build statistical confidence in how well it performs on any single security

Know Sure Thing in practice

Use exclusively on daily or higher timeframes — this app skips it entirely for shorter (hourly) analysis for exactly this reason
Best suited to identifying major trend changes for long-term position sizing, not for timing individual entries
Because signals are infrequent, treat KST as a background "regime" indicator rather than an active trading signal
Pair with volume and a second long-horizon tool (like Coppock) before treating a KST signal as high-conviction

Other momentum indicators

Percentage Price Oscillator
TTM Squeeze
Coppock Curve
Fisher Transform

Testing ideas built on Know Sure Thing

A reading of Know Sure Thing can be written as an exact rule and checked against historical data — as a full strategy with entries, exits and costs, or as a single condition and what followed it:

How to backtest a trading strategy without code
Event analysis: what follows a market event

Plot it yourself. Add this indicator to a chart, change every parameter and watch the line move, then backtest how the rule would have behaved on historical data — free on the S&P 500 ETF, no card.

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This is reference material, not advice. It describes what each indicator measures and how its readings are conventionally interpreted. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything, and no indicator predicts future prices. GU Analyser is an analytical tool — no money is ever traded here.