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SMA (Simple Moving Average) explained

Moving Averages

The full guide, with worked examples and what our tests found: Golden Cross and Death Cross Explained · The 200-Day Moving Average Explained · MACD Crossover Studies · Moving Average Strategy Studies

What SMA measures

The simplest and most widely used trend tool in technical analysis: the arithmetic mean of closing price over the last N periods. Every period counts equally — no weighting, no smoothing tricks. Its simplicity is exactly why it's so widely watched: the 50-day and 200-day SMA in particular are levels that a huge share of market participants track, which itself gives them added significance.

How SMA readings are interpreted

Price above a rising SMA is a basic uptrend signal; price below a falling SMA is a basic downtrend signal. The SMA is often read as dynamic support in an uptrend and dynamic resistance in a downtrend. Because many traders and institutions watch the same standard periods (20, 50, 200), some argue these levels become self-reinforcing.

Conventional SMA levels

Where SMA works, and where it does not

Works reasonably in most conditions but lags meaningfully behind price by design — a longer SMA is slower and smoother, a shorter SMA is faster and noisier. In sharply choppy markets, price can whipsaw back and forth across an SMA repeatedly with no sustained signal.

Indicators commonly read alongside SMA

Known limitations of SMA

SMA in practice

Other moving averages

EMA — Exponential Moving Average
Hull Moving Average
Double Exponential Moving Average
Triple Exponential Moving Average

On the test bench

A Stronger Benchmark for the MACD Crossover
Study 002 compared MACD crossovers with every trading day. A reader asked if that was fair, so we re-ran the test only against days with similar trend and volatility, with a calendar-block bootstrap interval on each crossover-minus-comparison difference.

Does the 200-Day Moving Average Work? Price Crossings Tested on S&P 500 Stocks
Price crossings of the 200-day average on 483 S&P 500 stocks, 2006 to September 2026: no clear difference from ordinary days over the next 100 trading days in either of the two signal tests.

Moving Average Crossover Backtest: Golden Cross vs 200-Day vs 9/21 EMA
The golden cross, the 200-day average and the 9/21 EMA as trading rules on 483 S&P 500 stocks, 2006 to September 2026, with next-open fills and costs, against buying and holding.

Does the Golden Cross Work? Golden and Death Crosses Tested on S&P 500 Stocks
Golden and death crosses on 483 S&P 500 stocks, 2006 to September 2026: no clear difference from ordinary days over the next 100 trading days in any of the four signal tests.

Golden Cross and Death Cross Explained
The golden cross and the death cross explained: the 50-day and 200-day averages, what each cross means and why it comes late, with our tests on S&P 500 stocks.

The 200-Day Moving Average Explained
The 200-day moving average explained: crossings, whipsaws and Faber’s 10-month timing rule, with our tests on S&P 500 stocks and SPY.

MACD Crossover Studies
A series of event studies on the MACD signal-line crossover in US large-cap stocks: what follows a crossover, whether the benchmark it is measured against is fair, and whether the size of the crossover carries information of its own.

Moving Average Strategy Studies
Moving average trading explained: SMA and EMA, crossovers, the golden cross and the 200-day average, with our tests of three rules on S&P 500 stocks and a backtest of the three.

Testing ideas built on SMA

A reading of SMA can be written as an exact rule and checked against historical data — as a full strategy with entries, exits and costs, or as a single condition and what followed it:

How to backtest a trading strategy without code
Event analysis: what follows a market event

Plot it yourself. Add this indicator to a chart, change every parameter and watch the line move, then backtest how the rule would have behaved on historical data — free on the S&P 500 ETF, no card.

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This is reference material, not advice. It describes what each indicator measures and how its readings are conventionally interpreted. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything, and no indicator predicts future prices. GU Analyser is an analytical tool — no money is ever traded here.